we all need validation, plus product market fit feels and links your algo fears

This past week was all about testing my first hypothesis with my first user group: regular humans who might want to check in at local businesses for perks and rewards. Not crypto natives, not web3 enthusiasts—though let's be real, they also like free coffee and dopamine hits from earning things—just regular humans who might actually use this thing.

First I created a 7-part questionnaire and built it as an Airtable form so that I could easily collect the data. Sample question: “If you could check in at a business and instantly earn a perk or reward, how likely are you to do it?" plus multiple choice on what kinds of perks actually motivate people. Then I did something I've never done before—built sequential Instagram stories with a clear CTA in hopes of getting people to pay attention despite so much noise.

To my surprise, it actually fucking worked. Well, at least for a small percentage it worked, and that’s all I needed.

The incentive structure I ran looked like this:

1. Early “founders club” access to the app when it launches, and

2. $3 Venmo'd to you for coffee at your favorite local spot, as a thank-you

I also asked people to tag us when they grab said coffee. That way I can reshare to IG stories and complete a beautiful little validation-to-community loop. Whether or not folks will is tbd.

Because I have an email list of roughly 1,500—and because why not test multiple channels while I’m at it—I then recreated the IG stories sequence into a trackable email campaign and sent it out.

Note: even though I worked for an email marketing startup for 2 whole years and know way more about email marketing than I ever wanted to, I still completely fucked up the send. I got too excited and just yeeted the campaign out to an entire list that hadn’t been engaged, cleaned, or pruned in years.

While I did get a good open rate and CTR after hitting send, I was also gifted high bounce and unsubscribe rates, both of which promptly got me blocked on my email platform. Days later, I’m still trying to remedy that genius move.

Back to the results.

I was shocked. People actually responded. Not a ton—21 to be precise—but enough to get real signal through all the fuckshit. Enough to validate some assumptions and obliterate others.

The responses were fascinating. Turns out people are almost as motivated by rewards-based and experiential perks (tokens towards a future purchase, free drink, exclusive access) as they are by discount-based ones. They want the rewards to feel instant, seamless, cumulative, and exclusive . And—while I know this would be quite different among a crypto-native crowd—privacy concerns weren't nearly as big a barrier to adoption as I'd expected, but “too many steps” and notification fatigue absolutely were.

Next week I'll be testing with user group #2: local business owners. Different questionnaire, different approach, probably different surprises waiting for me I’m sure. I’ll also share about how I fucked up the simple task of sending $3 to each person who responded to the survey, and how doing so reminded of something important about people.

tbh, aside from writing Babe, this whole validation process feels like the most grounding thing I've done in months. There's something deeply satisfying about moving from "I think people want this" to "here's what 21 random humans told me they want." Small sample size + big clarity = I’d fuck with this.

Some links your feed fears:

The Tyranny of Small Decisions — This economics concept explains how individually rational decisions can lead to collectively irrational outcomes. Relevant for everything from climate change to why your Twitter feed is a hellscape.

Survivorship Bias in Product Development — Why we only hear about the startups that worked and how that skews our entire understanding of what makes products successful.

Excerpts From the Original Intention Economy Manifesto — Doc Searls' 2012 piece that predicted how consumers would eventually want to signal their intentions to businesses rather than being tracked. Eerily prescient and wholly overlapped with the web3 ethos around privacy.

Local First Software — A gorgeous exploration of software that prioritizes user ownership and works offline. The future of apps that don't hold your data hostage.

Truth in Inconvenience — Venkatesh Rao's brilliant piece connecting ZIRP, AI panic, and the meaning crisis through the lens of Meccano vs. Lego. If you're building anything in 2025, this will rewire how you think about friction and reality testing.

PS: Subscribe now if you want in on this arithmetic. Miss the last issue? It’s right here. Also literally none of this is ever financial advice. I’m sharing what I learn through Babe, and perhaps you’ll learn from my mistakes. Hopefully, maybe, who knows, ily. Also if you’re not already, come hang with Babe on insta, Farcaster, and TBA 🟦.